Hong Kong retail sales to post stable growth

This is due to the improved market condition and the return of international tourism.

Retail sales in Hong Kong will record stable growth in 2024, but at a moderate level, on the back of the reopening of borders with Mainland China, improved market conditions, and eased restrictions for international tourism.

In a report, BMI said Hong Kong’s retail sales continue to recover, posting a 12.4% year-on-year growth in November, the highest growth since July 2023.

Consumer spending in the market is expected to slightly increase by 1.5% YoY in 2024 to reach $179b (HK1.4t), but is still below the $191.8b (HK1.5t) recorded in 2019.

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“Over 2024, we forecast a slowdown in consumer spending growth in Hong Kong, China, as the base effects of the reopening of borders with Mainland China in February 2023, as well as the earlier opening of international borders in September 2022 wear off,” the report read.

“The tailing off of inflationary pressures and a solid labour market will provide upside risks to our forecast,” it added.

The consumer spending forecast is also in line with BMI’s Country Risk team’s forecast for the economy to grow by 1% YoY, slower than the 3% YoY projection in 2023.

Inflation is also expected to remain “solid with a 2.2% YoY growth this year.

$1 = HK$7.28