10 Thai banks' combined net profit up 24% to Bt162b

But guess which bank is the laggard with a 60% earnings drop?

According to Maybank Kim Eng, ten Thai banks reported a combined 2012 net profit of Bt162bn, +24% YoY, led by BAY which posted EPS growth of 58%, KBANK (+46%) and KTB (+30%). Laggard TMB, reported a 60% drop due to a huge provision in 4Q12 of Bt5bn or about 485bps to average loans.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

Fifth year of beating consensus. Consensus is expecting Thai banks to post EPS growth of 17% in 2013 vs expected SET growth of 20%. We believe that consensus is not overly bullish on Thai banks’ earnings and that 17% growth is achievable.

Loan to GDP is not at peak. Thai banks have continued to post solid loan growth, system loans now account for about 127% of GDP, not yet at the prior peak of 1.5x in 1997. Over the past decade, system loans grew at a high rate of 11.6% p.a. vs. nominal GDP of 7.5%. This suggests banks might struggle to get fast growth.