Profit growth of Thailand's banking sector predicted at 25% for 2013F

Thanks to a jump in loan, non-NII growth.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, they believe the Bt2t loan bill will be the trigger point for a return of the capex cycle. We forecast sector net profit growth of 26% for 2013F and 17% for 2014F, thanks to loan and Non-NII growth.

With higher risk of NPLs, we believe asset quality to remain healthy, while extra provisioning this year will strengthen bank balance sheets.

Here' smore from Maybank Kim Eng:

The expected declining credit costs next year could be another key driver for earnings growth.

The domestic economic slowdown this year will be a base adjustment after seeing strong growth last year.

They also expect economy returning to normal next year with MBKET estimates GDP growth at 4.5% in 2014F.

Domestic consumption will return to normal after consumers adjust to the new environment and after they rebuild their confidence, while exports will increase following global economic resilience.

The key driver for the Thailand's economy over the next few years will be the investment on both the public and private sectors.

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